Tag: Michigan '08 (page 3)

Howard Dean on CNN tonight: There are only 2 ways Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated. One is if Hillary and Obama agree on a plan. The other is after the nominee is chosen when she or he will control the credentials committee.

In other words, Florida and Michigan are not getting seated in time to have a say in the nominee.

If I were a voter in Florida or MIchigan, I'd be livid.

The one thing neither Dean nor the DNC can control is whether the superdelegates consider the votes in Florida and Michigan. They can factor the votes into their own calculations of the popular vote. They can factor them into their decision as to which candidate is more electable in November.

Florida and Michigan voters who want their vote counted ought to let the superdelegates from the other 48 states know. Here is a list of uncommitted superdelegates, and here is a list of committed superdelegates. Both should be contacted since superdelegates can decide or change their mind any time before they vote.

Update (TL): Comments now closed.

Bump and Update: Michigan Legisature adjourned without taking up the revote plan. More here and here.

There's only one fair solution left: Award and seat the delegates per the first primary vote. Obama made his bed, he can now lay in it.

***

Obama Again Asks for 50/50 Delegate Split in Michigan

Barack Obama is back to his unfair plan of demanding 50% of the delegates in Michigan.

I explained in detail last week why this is unfair and I'm going to say it again here.

On January 15, 2008, 594,398 Democrats went to their polling places and voted in their state's primary. The official Michigan election results are here.

[More...]

As Big Tent Democrat wrote below, Obama is the obstacle to the Michigan re-vote.

Ten of Hillary Clinton's individual donors have pledged $12 million for a revote.

Barack Obama tells CNN:

In a CNN interview, the Illinois senator recalled Clinton's statement last fall that Michigan's primary was "not going to count for anything."

"Then, as soon as she got into trouble politically, and it looked like she would have no prospects of winning the nomination without having [Michigan and Florida] count, suddenly she's extraordinarily concerned with the voters there," Obama told CNN. "I understand the politics of it, but let's be clear that it's politics."

His spokesman says: [More...]

This isn't a compromise, but the possible outcome of a complaint filed with the Rules Committee. Via Marc Ambinder:

Last week, DNC member Jon Ausman filed a petition with the party's rules and bylaws committee pointing out that the charter of the DNC uses the verb "shall" when describing the relationship between superdelegates and the convention, as in -- superdelegates "shall" be seated. The argument, basically, is that the charter supercedes any penalty imposed by the RBC. The counterarguement is that the verb "shall" is later qualified.

The 28 members of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee may well decide that the challenge has validity and may well decide to seat the superdelegates from Florida, and then, should there be a similar petition from Michigan, the superdelegates from Michigan.

This has nothing to do with the disenfranchisement of Florida's 1.7 million voters, and I doubt that Florida's superdelegates will make much of a difference in the long run. But....[More...]

The Michigan re-vote plan appears still possible, but is meeting resistance in the state legislature which must approve it, according to one legislator who was at a closed-door meeting today.

Barack Obama's campaign still hasn't endorsed it even though they have had a copy since yesterday. Hillary's campaign supports it.

"A re-vote is the only way Michigan can be assured its delegation will be seated, and vote in Denver' at the party's national convention this summer, Clinton campaign aide Harold Ickes said Monday. "If the Obama campaign thwarts a fair election process for the people of Michigan, it will jeopardize the Democratic nominee's ability to carry the state in the general election.''

The AP reports that Hillary Clinton supports the proposed Michigan re-vote plan.

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton Saturday said she supported a plan being developed by Michigan Democrats to hold a new primary in June.

As to both Michigan and Florida,

"I feel really strongly about it," Clinton said. "The 2.5 million people (in Michigan and Florida) who voted deserve to be counted. If it were my preference, we'd count their votes but if not, then they should have the opportunity to have a full-fledged primary waged for them and revote."

Where's Obama on this? Hedging.

Spokesman Tommy Vietor Saturday said the campaign was open to a "fair and practical" resolution of the conflict...."We will evaluate the details of any new proposed election carefully as well as any efforts to come to a fair seating of the delegates from Michigan."

Hillary also address the "big state" issue and electability today: [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

As expected:

Michigan Democrats agreed Friday to push a do-over primary in early June to give them a say in the close presidential race between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

Amid talks with the two campaigns, the four Michigan Democrats said in a statement they were "focusing on the possibility of a state-run primary in early June which would not use any state funding." Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, one of the Democratic participants, said a likely date is June 3.

Update (TL): The Michigan Democrats agreed but the campaigns still need to approve. [More...]

Update: Change of DNC email contact address. I just got an email from the DNC. They are getting the e-mails, particularly from TalkLeft readers. They ask if you want to register your opinion, please use this email address. The address is delegates-at-dnc.org. The DNC says the other email box is overwhelmed by emails, and this will allow better coordination and filtering. The emails will also be accessible to more DNC staffers and constitutent services.

Greg Sergeant at TPM writes an agreement for a re-do primary is imminent in Michigan. No mail-in voting primary, no 50/50.

I also hear the 50/50 won't be accepted and a redo primary is more likely.

Big Tent Democrat will be very happy. And if it's a firehouse primary, he was right weeks ago. Obama previously rejected a firehouse promary.

I'm okay with a re-vote in Michigan. It's not my first choice, but so long as it's not the 50/50 proposal, I can get behind it.

A few times I've mentioned that media commentators at the time said Obama (and Edward's) decision to withdraw their names from the MI ballot was strategic since they were unlikely to win the state and thought it would diminish the value of a Hillary win. Here's a report from the Iowa Independent at the time saying five sources told them it was a consideration, but denied it was the main one.

Update: Obama supporters are holding a meeting tomorrow on how to become a Michigan delegate.

On January 15, 2008, 594,398 Democrats went to their polling places and voted in their state's primary. The official Michigan election results are here.

328,309 Democrats in Michigan voted for Hillary Clinton. She won all but two counties, Washtenaw and Emmet. 238,168 voted uncommitted. 21,715 voted for Dennis Kucinich. 3,845 voted for Chris Dodd. 2,361 voted for Mike Gravel.

Hillary got 55% of the vote. The uncommitted, who either were truly uncommitted or for Obama, Edwards or Biden, all three of whom voluntarily withdrew their names from the ballot, got 40%. Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel won 5% of the vote.

Barack Obama now proposes he get 50% of the state's delegates. That would be vote-stealing. It would be disenfranchising 5% of Hillary's voters. It would be assuming that every uncommitted voter and every voter for Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel now want their vote to go to Obama.

That's called stealing an election.

Obama prevails in this crazy theory at his peril. There will be hundreds of thousands of Democrats across the country who will refuse to vote for him in November, thinking better a Republican than a cheat. [More...]

As I wrote below, no candidate was required to withdraw from the Michigan or Florida primaries as part of the Four State Pledge (pdf).

John Edwards and Barack Obama were on the ballot in Florida, but withdrew from the Michigan race. Why?

Bill Schneider at CNN had a very plausible explanation:

CNN's Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider suggested the Democrats who withdrew may have calculated that it was simply in their best political interest to do so.

"If there's no campaign, the candidate most likely to win Michigan is Hillary Clinton," Schneider said. "Her Democratic rivals don't want a Clinton victory in Michigan to count. They want Iowa and New Hampshire, where they have a better chance of stopping Clinton, to count more."

More...

Judging from the comments the Obama supporters are leaving on TalkLeft, it appears there's a fundamental misunderstanding on what the candidates promised and didn't promise regarding the outcomes of the Florida and Michigan primaries.

Here's the four state pledge (pdf).

It says nothing about which delegates will count or not count in Florida and Michigan. It says nothing about whether a state's primary will count or not.

The candidates merely pledged not to campaign in any states holding a primary or caucus before Super Tuesday, other than Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The text of the pledge is reprinted below:

Can anyone tell what Barack Obama will agree to and won't agree to in terms of a Michigan and Florida re-vote? Here's the latest. The comments on Big Tent Democrat's earlier post are full, this is a new thread on it.

The AP reports a consensus is being reached about a mail-in do-over vote in Florida and Michigan. Where is Obama on this? Will he agree?

Were Michigan voters really excluded? Here's the map of how Michigan voted. It looks like about 675,000 Dems voted. In 2004, about 150,000 Dems voted in the MI primary.

It was widely circulated in Michigan that Obama and Edwards supporters should vote uncommitted. Clearly, Detroit and Washtenaw County got the message (see the map.) So did Emmet county, which by the way, went 60% to Bush in the general election. It's not clear who Emmet s votes were for. Hillary's supporters came out. How much support does Obama have in MI outside of Detroit and Washtenaw county?

Both candidates have to agree to any new plan. If Obama withholds consent, does he raise the chances the delegates from the first votes will get seated in time to count?